MAN OF THE YEAR - 2009

Like always, there are several contenders.

There is the President of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva for winning a tightly contested bid against Chicago, Tokyo and Paris for the 2016 Olympics to be held in Rio. It was vindication of the fact that the centre of gravity is shifting to places like Beijing and Rio. Why don't we pitch Delhi for 2024? Yes, this is a castle in the air but the ingenuity of a billion people can put a foundation beneath it.

I remember Michael Jackson as he now rests in peace; he always 'thrilled' us, and wanted to "heal the world". I also thought of Amitabh Bachchan, the 'Paa' of acting and AR Rehman, the creative genius. Jai Ho. Let Hollywood worry about the world in "2012", Bollywood, the biggest dream factory thrives on eternal optimism.

Why not crown the 'Nano'? It is surely a great Ratan (gem) that Tata has gifted us. It reflects aspirations and genius of India's technical talent and a society content with packing big dreams in small bags. You don't realize it when you are part of history. India's lead in small cars would be remembered as one of the big turning points in the history of automobiles.

I also considered "the power of technology'. Don't be too concerned about H1N1 virus; look at how the social networking bug is changing lives. I expect lot of disruptive innovation in fields like alternative energy, automobiles, life sciences, communication and nano-technology. I wish agriculture would also witness the power of 'creative destruction' like telecom and food prices would go the way of mobile tariffs!

In the field of sports, nobody matches the class of Roger Federer. Though I am a fan of Tiger Woods, the man with more than a perfect vision, he's clearly driven himself into a sandpit. A better candidate would be Sachin Tendulkar for completing 20 glorious years and M S Dhoni for leading India to the top ranking in Test cricket.

Another contender was the "wisdom of the crowd". Proponents of 'efficient market theory' are seeking the help of evolutionary biology (incidentally, this is the 200th Birth anniversary of Charles Darwin) and neuro-psychology to understand market behavior. But 700 million voters of India displayed an uncanny 'wisdom of crowd" and proved all the pundits and their projections wrong. The sheer scale makes general elections in India the greatest show on planet, but the outcome this time added a magical touch. Statistically speaking, this was a six sigma event. And the real winners were 'people of India'.

"Spirit of India" was my "Man of the Year 2008'. It is good to see the world praising the prudence of our people and policies, and the resilience of our economy and society. Foreign investors who were on a "Quit India movement" are queuing up again as this old civilization with a young population is on its way to creating an economic miracle of this century. Undoubtedly, Reserve Bank of India also deserves the award for deft handling of affairs in a challenging environment. Thanks to far-sighted policies and swift actions of RBI, India has come out shiningly well amidst the global crisis. Why not those who 'saved' Satyam and created a case study?

Wasn't 2009 a year of contrasts? A president in his first year in office received Nobel Prize for peace even as he marched more soldiers into Afghanistan to fight an ultimate war. While a rich Japan saw people voting for left-of-centre ideology, the 'Left' in India had to eat a humble pie. The world saw shockingly abject poverty in 'Slumdog Millionaire' while Indians peppered the "World's richest" list. Globally, banks that were bailed out last year doled out record bonuses while unemployment hit record high. People driving gas guzzling Hummers flew in chartered planes to Copenhagen to preach to India about global warming. Amid the worst financial and economic crisis in history, we witnessed one of the sharpest rallies in asset markets. The world celebrated 20-years of fall of the Berlin wall and end of communism there while China celebrated 60-years of illustrious progress the country has made under a communist regime.

In fact, this country with a "great wall" was a strong contender. This wall grew at 9% and turned out to be a route to recovery for the rest of the world. No global citizen can by-pass the silk route. After stuffing every shelf with "made in China" goods, now this 800-pound Guerrilla with a $ 2.4 trillion kitty is shopping around the world for mines, oil-wells, farm land and what not. Learn Mandarin now to revisit one of the greatest imperialist journeys a decade later.

Chinese supposedly invented printing, but the art has now been mastered by the US Federal Reserve. No wonder, there are 'helicopter' loads of dollars sloshing around.

Whether you like it or hate it, 'carry' it or run a 'carry trade' with it, the fact remains, there is no other currency which has the mettle of being a world currency at present. We will definitely move towards a multi-polar currency regime (take my word, Indian Rupee will surely be a component), but that's still sometime away.

I thought of Warren Buffet, 'sage of Omaha' for putting his money where his mouth is and making the biggest bet of his life on a US Railroad company. In financial markets, it is difficult to choose between the bears who had a field day initially or bulls with sharp horns who pierced through the wall of worry later. It will be difficult to choose one winner from this extremely synchronized, most powerful rally ever. Equities, credit, commodities, pockets of real estate, many had award winning performance. Gold continued to glitter and was a strong contender. The jury is out on whether this rally in asset markets is due to improved economic fundamentals or a tsunami of liquidity.

Finally, the award goes to an intellectual giant who has pervaded the contemporary economic and political thinking. He preached the importance of government intervention to influence business cycles. The man who shaped policy in 1930s and 40s and drew flak during the 1970s stagflation is back in vogue again. The scale of policy stimulus this time is simply unprecedented and has averted fears of a financial Armageddon and deep recession. Governments everywhere have been extra-ordinarily bold and creative in throwing cash to ignite animal spirits. This is return of the 'Raj', the power of sovereign. It can declare the victory as economies have stabilized and markets have given thumbs-up. Yes, for now. But don't forget, a crisis with genesis in excessive leverage is not completely over; the leverage has effectively shifted from private to government's balance sheets with Iceland, Dubai, Greece and Spain serving as grim reminder. The magnitude of stimulus and associated uncertainty over the withdrawal will increase the volatility of economic variables as well as asset markets in future.

His riposte "when facts change, I change my opinion, what do you do, sir"? bears revisiting. His observations like "successful investing is anticipating the anticipation of others" and "It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong" sound so pertinent.

Sir John Maynard Keynes, who famously said, in the long run, we are all dead. But the legend lives on. Notwithstanding my philosophical leanings towards the Austrian economics and also the Chicago School, I salute Keynes for being the most influential and celebrated economist ever. I bow down to this legend who has been reincarnated as the savior of the world. He is 'Man of the Year 2009'.

Wish you a great year ahead.

Navneet Munot

Chief Investment officer - SBI funds management Private Ltd